The prevailing assumption among most retail investors in 2024 was simple: US tech goes up, Bitcoin follows, everything else is noise. Jonathan Quek's capital rotation thesis says that era may be over — at least for this cycle. US tech stocks have been the worst-performing sector over the past 6 months while basic materials, energy, and industrials are outperforming. Quek sold his entire crypto portfolio including Bitcoin at ~$108,000 in late 2024, calling for a potential retracement to $50,000.
His read isn't a crash thesis — it's a rotation thesis. The money hasn't left the market. It's changing sectors. And most retail investors in Malaysia are positioned on the wrong side of that shift — sitting in last year's winners while this cycle's leadership has quietly moved on.
Quek joined the Do More podcast in February 2026 to lay out the thesis in detail: the sector data, his crypto exit, the macro context, and where capital is actually going. Our contributors examine what this means across three angles.
Adam Tan — growth lens
Jonathan's capital rotation thesis is one of the clearest macro setups I've seen this cycle, and Malaysian investors are barely paying attention.
The data is hard to argue with: US tech stocks are the worst-performing sector over 6 months while basic materials, energy, and industrials are outperforming. This isn't a one-week blip — it's a multi-month trend confirmed across 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month timeframes. When sector leadership changes this clearly, capital is moving, and the question is whether you're moving with it or sitting in last year's winners.
Jonathan's crypto call adds credibility. He sold his altcoins in October 2024, kept only Bitcoin and Ethereum, then sold those too in early November at around $108,000 per BTC. Bitcoin peaked at $124,000 and has since declined. Most crypto influencers were screaming 'HODL' at that point — he exited. That's not luck; it's reading cycle tops.
His prediction that Bitcoin could revisit $50,000 sounds extreme, but a 50-60% drawdown from cycle highs is historically normal for Bitcoin. It happened in 2018 (-84%), 2022 (-77%), and the setup for a major correction exists if the rotation out of risk assets continues.
What this means for Malaysian investors:
If you're holding US tech through unit trusts or robo-advisors (StashAway, Wahed, KDI), check your sector allocation. Many Malaysian investors are overweight US tech without realising it — the S&P 500 is over 30% tech, and popular unit trusts like Public e-Mutual's Global Select Fund have significant Nasdaq exposure.
The rotation toward commodities and industrials also has a direct KLSE play. Malaysia exports palm oil, petroleum, rubber, and semiconductors. If commodities are the new sector leadership, Bursa-listed companies in these sectors (Sime Darby Plantation, Petronas-linked counters, Hartalega) may outperform the tech-heavy US indices.
My read: The easy money in tech and crypto from the 2023-2024 cycle is done. If you haven't rebalanced toward commodities and value, you're fighting the flow. Check your unit trust allocations this week.
Daniel Lim — steady lens
Jonathan's sector rotation data is real. The question is whether it's tradeable or just observable.
What the data shows: US tech stocks underperforming basic materials and energy across multiple timeframes is a genuine signal. This pattern — late-cycle rotation from growth to value — has happened before. In 2000-2002 (dot-com bust), tech lost 78% while energy gained. In 2022, a similar rotation played out briefly before reversing.
Jonathan sold Bitcoin at $108,000 and predicts a drop to $50,000. Credit where it's due — that exit was well-timed. But let's examine the prediction carefully.
Three concerns with acting on this thesis:
1. Sector rotation signals are noisy. Over the last decade, there have been multiple periods where tech underperformed for 3-6 months before reasserting leadership. The 2022 'rotation' into energy reversed within 9 months as AI hype reignited tech. A 6-month observation window is meaningful but not conclusive — rotations that stick typically need 12+ months of confirmation and a fundamental catalyst (rising rates, commodity supply shock, regulatory change).
2. Timing exits is easier than timing re-entries. Jonathan sold Bitcoin at $108K — excellent. But his $50K re-entry target is a prediction, not a plan. If Bitcoin drops to $60K and reverses to $90K, does he buy? At what level does he accept the thesis was wrong? The sell was the easy part. The re-entry decision is where most macro traders lose their gains.
3. Malaysian investors can't easily rotate. Most retail investors here access US markets through unit trusts or robo-advisors with monthly switching fees and 5-7 day settlement. By the time you switch from a tech fund to a commodity fund, the rotation may have already played out. This thesis works better for active traders with direct US brokerage access — not typical Malaysian savers.
What I'd actually do: Don't wholesale dump your tech exposure. Instead, review your allocation: if more than 40% of your invested assets are in US tech (directly or via unit trusts), consider trimming 10-15% into Malaysian commodity-linked equities or fixed deposits as a hedge. If the rotation thesis is right, you've reduced risk. If it's wrong, you've only given up marginal upside on the trimmed portion.
Sarah Abdullah — action lens
Want to check whether your investments are exposed to the tech-to-commodities rotation? Here's how to audit your portfolio in 30 minutes.
Prerequisites:
- Login access to your unit trust platform (Public Mutual, Fundsupermart, StashAway, Wahed, etc.)
- Login to your CDS account if you hold Bursa stocks
- A simple spreadsheet or calculator
Step 1: List every investment you hold. Include: unit trusts, robo-advisor portfolios, Bursa stocks, EPF i-Invest selections, crypto holdings. Write down the current value of each.
Step 2: Check sector exposure for each unit trust. Log in to your fund platform. For each unit trust, find the fund factsheet (usually under 'Fund Information' or 'Documents'). Look for the sector allocation pie chart. Note the percentage in Technology, Energy, Basic Materials, and Industrials. If the factsheet isn't available, search the fund name on Morningstar.com — sector breakdown is on the 'Portfolio' tab.
Step 3: Calculate your total tech exposure. Multiply each fund's tech percentage by its value in your portfolio. Add them up and divide by your total portfolio value. Example: If you have RM50,000 in a fund that's 35% tech, your tech exposure from that fund is RM17,500. If your total portfolio is RM100,000, that's 17.5% tech just from one fund.
Step 4: Assess against Jonathan's rotation thesis.
- Under 20% tech: You're not heavily exposed. Monitor but no urgent action needed.
- 20-40% tech: Moderate exposure. Consider whether your risk tolerance matches this concentration.
- Over 40% tech: High concentration. If the rotation thesis plays out, you'll feel it. Consider trimming.
Step 5: Check your KLSE commodity exposure. If you hold Bursa-listed stocks, categorise them: plantation (Sime Darby Plantation, IOI Corp), oil & gas (Dialog, Yinson), gloves (Hartalega, Top Glove), mining (MSC Group). These are the sectors that benefit from a commodity rotation.
Step 6: Rebalance if needed — but don't panic-switch. If you decide to reduce tech exposure, do it over 2-3 months (dollar-cost averaging out), not in one lump switch. Most unit trust platforms charge switching fees of 0.25-0.5% — factor this into your decision. For EPF i-Invest, check the quarterly switching window.
Common mistake: Reacting to one market thesis by completely overhauling your portfolio. Rotation signals can reverse. Trim, don't liquidate.
Source Video
This analysis drew on the following video as a primary source.
Affiliate disclosure: money.com.my may earn a commission if you apply for a product through our links. This does not affect editorial recommendations — products are assessed on published rates and terms.