The prevailing assumption among most retail investors in 2024 was simple: US tech goes up, Bitcoin follows, everything else is noise. Jonathan Quek's capital rotation thesis says that era may be over — at least for this cycle. In the Do More interview (published 13 February 2026), Quek said US tech stocks had been the worst-performing sector over the preceding six months while basic materials, energy, and industrials were outperforming. He also said he sold his entire crypto portfolio including Bitcoin at about $108,000, calling for a potential retracement to $50,000. These are his claims as of that interview; we have not verified the sector data or the trade, and conditions have moved since.
His read isn't a crash thesis — it's a rotation thesis. The money hasn't left the market. It's changing sectors. And most retail investors in Malaysia are positioned on the wrong side of that shift — sitting in last year's winners while this cycle's leadership has quietly moved on.
Quek joined the Do More podcast in February 2026 to lay out the thesis in detail: the sector data, his crypto exit, the macro context, and where capital is actually going. Our contributors examine what this means across three angles.
Adam Tan — growth lens
Jonathan's capital rotation thesis is one of the clearest macro setups I've seen this cycle, and Malaysian investors are barely paying attention.
Quek's data, as presented in the video, is that US tech stocks were the worst-performing sector over 6 months while basic materials, energy, and industrials were outperforming, across 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month timeframes. We could not check this against an index provider's data, so read it as his claim as of February 2026, not a current fact. When sector leadership changes this clearly, capital is moving, and the question is whether you're moving with it or sitting in last year's winners.
Jonathan's crypto call, if it happened as he describes, adds credibility. By his account he sold his altcoins first, kept only Bitcoin and Ethereum, then sold those too at around $108,000 per BTC. (An earlier version of this piece dated those sales to October and early November 2024 and said Bitcoin later peaked at $124,000; we could not verify those dates or that peak from a primary source and have removed them.) Whether that was reading a cycle top or luck can't be judged from one trade.
His prediction that Bitcoin could revisit $50,000 sounds extreme, but deep drawdowns from cycle highs have happened to Bitcoin more than once (we have not verified specific percentages, and an earlier version's figures of -84% for 2018 and -77% for 2022 have been removed), and a major correction is possible if the rotation out of risk assets continues.
What this means for Malaysian investors:
If you're holding US tech through unit trusts or robo-advisors (StashAway, Wahed, KDI), check your sector allocation. Many Malaysian investors are overweight US tech without realising it — the S&P 500 carries a large technology weighting (we could not reach S&P's factsheet, so no figure is given here), and global equity unit trusts often have significant US tech exposure; check each fund's factsheet.
The rotation toward commodities and industrials also has a direct KLSE play. Malaysia exports palm oil, petroleum, rubber, and semiconductors. If commodities are the new sector leadership, Bursa-listed companies in these sectors (SD Guthrie, Petronas-linked counters, Hartalega) may outperform the tech-heavy US indices.
My read: The easy money in tech and crypto from the 2023-2024 cycle is done. If you haven't rebalanced toward commodities and value, you're fighting the flow. Check your unit trust allocations this week.
Daniel Lim — steady lens
Taking Jonathan's sector rotation data at face value (we have not verified it), the question is whether it's tradeable or just observable.
What the data shows, if accurate: US tech stocks underperforming basic materials and energy across multiple timeframes would be a meaningful signal. This pattern — late-cycle rotation from growth to value — has happened before. After the dot-com peak in 2000, tech sold off heavily while more defensive sectors held up better. In 2022, a similar rotation played out briefly before reversing (both are general market history, not figures we checked against a primary source).
Jonathan says he sold Bitcoin at about $108,000 and predicts a drop to $50,000. If the exit was as described, credit where it's due. But let's examine the prediction carefully.
Three concerns with acting on this thesis:
1. Sector rotation signals are noisy. Over the last decade, there have been multiple periods where tech underperformed for 3-6 months before reasserting leadership. The 2022 'rotation' into energy reversed as AI enthusiasm reignited tech. A 6-month observation window is meaningful but not conclusive — rotations that stick typically need 12+ months of confirmation and a fundamental catalyst (rising rates, commodity supply shock, regulatory change).
2. Timing exits is easier than timing re-entries. Jonathan says he sold Bitcoin at $108K. Selling is the easy part. His $50K re-entry target is a prediction, not a plan. If Bitcoin drops to $60K and reverses to $90K, does he buy? At what level does he accept the thesis was wrong? The sell was the easy part. The re-entry decision is where most macro traders lose their gains.
3. Malaysian investors can't easily rotate. Most retail investors here access US markets through unit trusts or robo-advisors, which can carry switching fees and multi-day settlement (check each fund's prospectus for the actual terms). By the time you switch from a tech fund to a commodity fund, the rotation may have already played out. This thesis works better for active traders with direct US brokerage access — not typical Malaysian savers.
What I'd actually do: Don't wholesale dump your tech exposure. Instead, review your allocation: if more than 40% of your invested assets are in US tech (directly or via unit trusts), consider trimming 10-15% into Malaysian commodity-linked equities or fixed deposits as a hedge. If the rotation thesis is right, you've reduced risk. If it's wrong, you've only given up marginal upside on the trimmed portion.
Sarah Abdullah — action lens
Want to check whether your investments are exposed to the tech-to-commodities rotation? Here's how to audit your portfolio in 30 minutes.
Prerequisites:
- Login access to your unit trust platform (Public Mutual, FSMOne, StashAway, Wahed, etc.)
- Login to your CDS account if you hold Bursa stocks
- A simple spreadsheet or calculator
Step 1: List every investment you hold. Include: unit trusts, robo-advisor portfolios, Bursa stocks, EPF i-Invest selections, crypto holdings. Write down the current value of each.
Step 2: Check sector exposure for each unit trust. Log in to your fund platform. For each unit trust, find the fund factsheet (usually under 'Fund Information' or 'Documents'). Look for the sector allocation pie chart. Note the percentage in Technology, Energy, Basic Materials, and Industrials. If the factsheet isn't available, search the fund name on Morningstar.com — sector breakdown is on the 'Portfolio' tab.
Step 3: Calculate your total tech exposure. Multiply each fund's tech percentage by its value in your portfolio. Add them up and divide by your total portfolio value. Example: If you have RM50,000 in a fund that's 35% tech, your tech exposure from that fund is RM17,500. If your total portfolio is RM100,000, that's 17.5% tech just from one fund.
Step 4: Assess against Jonathan's rotation thesis.
- Under 20% tech: You're not heavily exposed. Monitor but no urgent action needed.
- 20-40% tech: Moderate exposure. Consider whether your risk tolerance matches this concentration.
- Over 40% tech: High concentration. If the rotation thesis plays out, you'll feel it. Consider trimming.
Step 5: Check your KLSE commodity exposure. If you hold Bursa-listed stocks, categorise them: plantation (SD Guthrie, IOI Corp), oil & gas (Dialog, Yinson), gloves (Hartalega, Top Glove). These are the sectors that benefit from a commodity rotation.
Step 6: Rebalance if needed — but don't panic-switch. If you decide to reduce tech exposure, do it over 2-3 months (dollar-cost averaging out), not in one lump switch. Switching fees vary by fund house — check the prospectus and factor the cost into your decision. If you hold funds through an EPF scheme, check its current switching rules.
Common mistake: Reacting to one market thesis by completely overhauling your portfolio. Rotation signals can reverse. Trim, don't liquidate.
Source Video
This analysis drew on the following video as a primary source.
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Amendment, 17 October 2026. This is a market-opinion piece built on one interview, and almost none of its market claims can be checked against a primary source (index providers, exchanges and regulators do not publish them in a form we could retrieve). Every sector-performance and Bitcoin claim is now attributed to Jonathan Quek's interview of 13 February 2026 and dated to that point in time. Removed as unverified: the dates (October and early November 2024) and the $124,000 peak around his Bitcoin sale; the -84% (2018) and -77% (2022) Bitcoin drawdowns; the 78% fall in tech in 2000-2002; the "over 30% tech" S&P 500 weight; the Public e-Mutual fund named as having Nasdaq exposure; the 0.25-0.5% switching fee and 5-7 day settlement; the claim that the 2022 rotation "reversed within 9 months"; the EPF i-Invest "quarterly switching window"; and "MSC Group". Updated: Sime Darby Plantation now trades as SD Guthrie Berhad (KLSE: SDG), per its website; Hartalega Holdings Berhad's name was confirmed. The argument and the three lenses are unchanged. Evidence is in docs/verification-log/evidence-batch-f1-oct17/.